Matt at the Movies: The Oscar Breakdown Continues
Matt surveys the state of the 2025 field for the top Academy Awards categories.
Editor’s Note: If you missed Matt’s coverage of the “below the line” categories, you can read his first review of the 2025 Academy Awards nominations here.
Before we get to the “above the line” Oscar categories, lets look at how the studios fared with this year’s noms:
Total Academy Awards Nominations by Studio
Netflix - 16
A24 - 14
Universal - 13
Focus - 12
Searchlight - 10
Neon - 7
Mubi - 6
Warner Bros. - 5
Netflix is in the lead, and you have to wonder if the industry will finally lighten up and award the streaming service its first Best Picture win. They came in as favorites in 2019 for Roma, and followed up in 2021 with David Finchner’s Mank and in 2022 with Power of the Dog, only to fail to win the grand prize each time. Could this be the year they break through, or will A24 reign supreme again with its second win in three years?
For our feature categories, I asked guest Oscars contributor and my cinephile queen Dana Gillis for some thoughts. We still have yet to take in a majority of the shorts, and we are working our way through documentaries and international features (access is our current enemy), so we’ll stick with what we’ve seen up to this point.
Here are our thoughts on the “above the line” categories:
The 2025 “Above the Line” Nominations
Best Adapted Screenplay
A Complete Unknown – James Mangold and Jay Cocks; based on the book Dylan Goes Electric! by Elijah Wald
Conclave – Peter Straughan; based on the novel by Robert Harris
Emilia Pérez – Jacques Audiard; in collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius, and Nicolas Livecchi; based on the opera libretto Emilia Pérez by Jacques Audiard and the novel Écoute by Boris Razon
Nickel Boys – RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes; based on the novel The Nickel Boys by Colson Whitehead
Sing Sing – Screenplay by Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley; story by Greg Kwedar, Clint Bentley, Clarence Maclin, and John "Divine G" Whitfield; based on the book The Sing Sing Follies by John H. Richardson and the play Breakin' the Mummy's Code by Brent Buell
Matt at the Movies: Conclave, adapted from the 2016 Robert Harris novel, would seem to be the leader. It’s a movie that feels like it could have been written by Aaron Sorkin with the back and forth small room dialogue.
Nickel Boys is making a late push as the Colson Whitehead adaptation is registering with critics and the filmmaking community.
Dana Gillis: As you know, on top of being a movie nerd I am also a book nerd and will 99% of the time believe that the book is better than the movie. Robert Harris and Colson Whitehead are both brilliant writers and to adapt a great work of literature to film is a daunting feat. Both films do the respective works justice and I would be happy to see either Conclave or Nickel Boys take the award.
Best Original Screenplay
Anora – Sean Baker
The Brutalist – Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold
A Real Pain – Jesse Eisenberg
September 5 – Moritz Binder and Tim Fehlbaum; co-written by Alex David
The Substance – Coralie Fargeat
MatM: Original screenplay used to be the “cool” category, where winners like Quentin Tarantino (Pulp Fiction/Django Unchained), Spike Jonze (Her), Jordan Peele (Get Out), and Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) would bring home the award for films that pushed the envelope.
My personal choice for this would go for Jesse Eisenberg for A Real Pain, but The Brutalist hits on all levels from tense drama to levity in its two act sprawling story.
DG: I haven’t seen The Brutalist or September 5 yet so I know my response here may change dramatically, but my heart also lies with A Real Pain. Jessie Eisenberg knocked it out of the park as writer, director, and lead actor in this movie, and the personal nature of the content just “hit” for me.
I’m excited about the outcome for this race since all five Original screenplays this year are from first-time writing nominees, which is unheard of.
Best Animated Feature
Flow – Gints Zilbalodis, Matīss Kaža, Ron Dyens, and Gregory Zalcman
Inside Out 2 – Kelsey Mann and Mark Nielsen
Memoir of a Snail – Adam Elliot and Liz Kearney
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl – Nick Park, Merlin Crossingham, and Richard Beek
The Wild Robot – Chris Sanders and Jeff Hermann
MatM: The Wild Robot was a sweet and moving tale that features amazing animation and a great soundtrack. While not a billion dollar box office megahit like Inside Out 2, it is elevated and it is refreshing to see it as the frontrunner.
The real gem of the bunch, Flow, was made for a mere $3.7 million by Latvian filmmaker Gints Zilbalodis. The style of cel-shaded animation feels rough but also beautiful, with gorgeous scenery and amazing details to showcase animals better than any film I’ve ever seen. I was locked into the film for the entire runtime - it’s a harrowing journey of a cat and his unlikely band of animal friends trying to survive a great flood. Flow should be the winner if enough voters get to view it before casting their ballots.
DG: Matthew, I am ashamed to say that I have not seen a single one of the animated films this year. It isn’t my jam, but I will make a grand effort before our final voting commences.
I am most excited to see Flow because of the hype it has gotten, but Wallace and Gromit will always have my heart.
Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov – Anora as Igor
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain as Benji Kaplan
Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown as Pete Seeger
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist as Harrison Lee Van Buren Sr.
Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice as Roy Cohn
MatM: I originally thought Jeremy Strong snuck in to take Clarence Maclin’s excellent portrayal of himself in Sing Sing… then I rented The Apprentice and re-evaluated my opinion. Strong's portrayal of infamous Red Scare lawyer Roy Cohn elevated a decent script about our current president's rise to prominence in NYC during the 80’s.
Was also happy to see Guy Pearce, one of my all-time favorite actors, bring home his first nomination for The Brutalist.
However, this award is presumably all sewn up as Kieran Culkin has dominated the other award shows to date. He plays the smarmy, pseudo intellectual asshole like none other, and it really shined in A Real Pain. As Succession showed us, Culkin has a habit of outsmarting the “eldest boy.”
DG: I may have recency bias since The Apprentice is the last film I’ve seen, but Jeremy Strong absolutely killed it as Roy Cohn.
Guy Pearce has had my heart since Factory Girl, but I’m going to go with Kieran Culkin here. After watching A Real Pain, I heard Jesse Eisenberg talk about Culkin being an acting genius and it sold this performance for me. Culkin is this character - charismatic, but with a cesspool of melancholy lingering below the surface.
Best Supporting Actress
Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown as Joan Baez
Ariana Grande – Wicked as Galinda "Glinda" Upland
Felicity Jones – The Brutalist as Erzsébet Tóth
Isabella Rossellini – Conclave as Sister Agnes
Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez as Rita Mora Castro
MatM: Isabella Rossellini snuck in to the fifth spot over Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), and Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl). Her performance in Conclave is small and muted. This selection really surprised me, but she is from Hollywood royalty so these things tend to happen.
Nice to see Monaca Barbaro get a shout for her work as Joan Baez in A Complete Unknown. Some were surprised by Felicity Jones with The Brutalist, but her character propelled the story to a different yet interesting place in the second half of the film, and her performance has stuck with me since my initial viewing.
Who are we kidding though? Category fraud or not, this is Zoe Saldaña’s big night and she was the best part of Emilia Pérez.
DG: I haven’t revealed my thoughts on Emilia Pérez yet (more in Best Picture), but Zoe Saldaña is the one to beat in this category. She’s been a shoe-in all awards season and I don’t see that changing.
I will say, however, that I am surprised she wasn’t nominated in the lead actress category since she carries the entire film (no offense to Karla Sofía Gascón).
Best Actor
Adrien Brody – The Brutalist as László Tóth
Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown as Bob Dylan
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing as John "Divine G" Whitfield
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave as Cardinal Thomas Lawrence
Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice as Donald Trump
MatM: Great slate across the board in this category.
Sebastian Stan, whom I would have assumed would get the nod for A Different Man, has gained a lot of traction from great interviews and earned his nomination for his portrayal as Donald Trump in The Apprentice. Ralph Fiennes could garner plenty of votes for a career achievement in Conclave, but this is really a two horse race.
Previous best actor winner Adrien Brody has come under fire for the production use of A.I. to enhance his Hungarian dialect (from a single scene), but delivered a masterful performance as László Tóth, an architect who survived to Holocaust to make his way in post WWII America. His biggest competitor is Hollywood “it boy” Timothée Chalamet, who has earned his second Best Actor nomination before turning thirty as he “became” Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown. His ability to act, sing, and create a pretty mesmerizing musical biopic follows the perfect Hollywood formula for winning Oscars. I’ll take Brody, but wouldn’t be surprised if Chalamet makes his way up to the podium on March 2.
DG: I would vote for Adrien Brody if he were singing jingles in an adult diapers commercial. He has been my favorite actor since he walked on that screen with his mohawk in 1999’s Summer of Sam, and I have loved him ever since. He is the darling of Wes Anderson and the darling of my heart. No one else in this category comes close, but Voldemort (Ralph Fiennes) and Baby Wonka (Timothée Chalamet) could give him a run for his money. We shall see.

Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked as Elphaba Thropp
Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez as Emilia Pérez / Juan "Manitas" Del Monte
Mikey Madison – Anora as Anora "Ani" Mikheeva
Demi Moore – The Substance as Elisabeth Sparkle
Fernanda Torres – I'm Still Here as Eunice Paiva
MatM: Nicole Kidman is out! Marianne Jean-Baptiste, who critics have hailed for her powerful performance in Hard Truth, is also out. Instead, Brazilian actress Fernanda Torres, fresh off her win earlier this month at the Golden Globes for I’m Still Here, is not only in, but getting heavy industry praise and building momentum towards a possible upset.
I still think Mikey Madison in Anora was my favorite performance this year, but all the buzz has been for Demi Moore and The Substance. Demi was great in a very wild film, but I felt her co-star Margaret Qualley was equally good if not better than her. Karla Sofía Gascón has been taking home many accolades for Emilia Pérez, but once again her co-star Zoe Saldaña was the star of the show. I think this is Moore vs Torres and can’t make a decision at this point.
DG: The only thought I had when I saw the nominees in this category was that I am beyond glad that Angelina Jolie was not nominated for Maria. Her performance was too “try hard” for me, similar to Bradley Cooper in Maestro.
This GenXer is rooting hard for Demi Moore to finally get her just due for The Substance. Margaret Qualley was snubbed for Supporting Actress, so I hope Demi can pull it off.

Best Director
Sean Baker – Anora
Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
James Mangold – A Complete Unknown
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
MatM: Five first-time directors this year, including two from France! James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) would be a boring pick and Sean Baker (Anora) seems to not have the juice at this point.
The French contingent - Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) and Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) - seems too divisive for voters, and I can see Brady Corbet taking this home for The Brutalist. Corbet made the best piece of art this year and he should walk away with the award.
DG: I was not disappointed with a single choice in this category, and would be fine with any of the five taking the award. Based on critiques I have read thus far, I agree with your assessment of Brady Corbet.
Best Picture
Anora – Alex Coco, Samantha Quan, and Sean Baker, producers
The Brutalist – Nominees to be determined
A Complete Unknown – Fred Berger, James Mangold, and Alex Heineman, producers
Conclave – Tessa Ross, Juliette Howell, and Michael A. Jackman, producers
Dune: Part Two – Mary Parent, Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, and Denis Villeneuve, producers
Emilia Pérez – Pascal Caucheteux and Jacques Audiard, producers
I'm Still Here – Nominees to be determined
Nickel Boys – Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, and Joslyn Barnes, producers
The Substance – Nominees to be determined
Wicked – Marc Platt, producer
MatM: I’m Still Here and Dune: Part Two were slight surprises. The big story, however, is the inclusion of Nickel Boys which you can go see today at The Independent Picture House. Was very excited to see this included over September 5 and The Last Showgirl. The biggest snub is one of my favorites of the year, A Real Pain.
Ranked choice voting matters people! If you begin to sketch out some game theory as to who can take home the top prize, there are probably five different options in a seemingly wide open field.
So who’s in real contention? My five would be A Complete Unknown, Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, and Emilia Pérez. Internet activists and some voters are lukewarm on Emilia Pérez right now, so while some may put it in the #1 or #2 slot, Emilia Pérez may show up at the bottom for other voters.
Anora and A Complete Unknown are both crowd favorites that will receive a majority of the upper echelon votes. The Brutalist is my personal pick, but could also be seen as too artsy or overstuffed. Does this leave Edward Berger’s Conclave as the safest bet? Too early to make the call, but there are many spinning plates for the year's biggest artistic prize.
DG: Full disclosure - I have not seen The Brutalist yet and from everything I’ve read, that is probably going to get my top pick. I’m shocked to the core that Dune: Part Two was chosen over A Real Pain. The acting and writing in A Real Pain are exactly the quality you would see in a great film. Beyond its pornographic popcorn bucket, Dune is just meh for me. I wouldn’t have chosen it for anything other than cinematography (and that is being kind).
At this point my top five votes, but not my personal preferences, are exactly the same as yours because the critics have been solid on those five all season. Personally, I want to have an Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind moment and cleanse my brain of Emilia Pérez forever. Some topics should never be a musical and Mexican cartels and sex change operations are two of those topics. Anora was just ok, A Complete Unknown was enjoyable but not memorable, and Conclave was solid.
I wasn’t blown away by any of the ten picks, so I’ll go with The Brutalist for now in the hopes that it lives up to the hype.
The Dénouement
That’s a wrap on the nominations for the 97th Academy Awards.
Many of these films are available to stream, rent, buy, or watch in theaters. Currently you can check out Nickel Boys and A Complete Unknown at the Independent Picture House with The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Flow, Emilia Pérez, and I’m Still Here also showing in the coming weeks.
I’ll have more Oscar chats for the big night on March 2nd with Dana as we will dive into our email exchange after catching the rest of the slate. The weather is cold and dreary but the warm smell of popcorn and the big screen can take you away from the troubles of life, if only for a few hours.
Thanks for reading, and see you next time with Matt at the Movies at Y’all Weekly.