Matt at the Movies: The Oscars Exchange

Ahead of tomorrow night's ceremony, Y'all Weekly Film Critic Matt Cramer and guest contributor Dana Gillis talk Academy Awards, and who is going home from the party with Oscar!

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Mar 09, 2024

Hundreds of hours of great films have been watched, discussed, dissected, campaigned for, nominated, and voted on ahead of Oscar’s big night with the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

Now, it’s time for Matt at the Movies to predict the Oscar winners. They say for every good man there is a woman who is a foot taller than him rolling their eyes and that is exactly the case with my friend Dana Gillis. The Reverend Mother to my Muad'Dib, the Alan to my Ken; Dana is a fellow cinephile and educator who has argued with me for years about who should win these completely made up awards.

By the way, I can't wait to see you in your Sunday best for the Oscar Viewing Party & Fundraiser at the Independent Picture House on March 10th (there are still tickets available)! We'll be live reacting and posting throughout the ceremony so check out the Matt at the Movies Instagram to follow along.

We encourage you to use this link to follow along to the categories in our discussion and check the end of the article to see our selections for each category (Dana finally beat me last year).

As Robert Oppenheimer declared to his wife Kitty, “It’s time to bring in the sheets.” Let's get to our first question of the 2024 Oscar exchange.

Editor’s Note: The following email exchanges took place from February 23rd to March 7th. They are lightly edited.

Betting on Best Picture

Matt at the Movies: We have a really solid overall year in film. Oppenheimer is the obvious frontrunner with many nominations above the line, but also some technical categories.

Thoughts on the Oppenheimer hype? Is it deserving to you and do you think it has a chance to pull a sweep like last year's Everything Everywhere All at Once? Lastly, who do you think has the best chance to spoil the party come awards day?

Dana Gillis: What an incredible year to be a cinephile! I can honestly say this is the first time in many years I love something about every single movie up for best picture; some more than others. I'm sure we'll dive deeper into that later but every one of them was enjoyable or spoke to me in some way.

That being said, I think the hype surrounding Oppenheimer and the strong showing it has had all awards season is just too hard to beat. If you had asked me back in the summer if Oppie would have had the lasting power to make it all the way through awards season, I would have said no way. It was a cool IMAX movie, but not the best movie of the year. However, on my second viewing, I've changed my mind and am now firmly “Team Oppenheimer.” Has it always been at the top of your list this year?

MatM: Yea Oppenheimer is on a constant loop in my personal life from lesson planning to cooking to falling asleep at night. Every banal task has instantly become a ticking-clock Trinity Test where I spend six hours a day with a flop sweat wondering if the world is going to explode. It’s really spiraling out of control and my wife is tired of me casually calling her Chevalier around the house.

Let’s take a look at our best picture power rankings. They’ve heard me prattle on for months and would love to hear your thoughts on each of the best pic nominees.

DG: It's years like this that make doing power rankings so difficult. Do I go with my heart or with my head? Am I a critic or am I a fan? I've already given my head answer - Oppenheimer - so I'm going to give you my heart.

The Zone of Interest - This movie changed me as a person and as a movie lover. I left the theater stunned and could not talk about the movie for a while after because of the emotion it stirred in me. This is one of those movies we will be talking about and studying for years to come.
Poor Things - I actually turned this off the first time I tried to watch it because it is one of those movies you have to be in the right headspace to appreciate. The second time was perfection. I absolutely adored the character of Bella and wish I could go through life exactly as she does. Emma Stone was brilliant, the artistry of this movie was beautiful, and "I must go punch that baby" is one of my new favorite movie lines.
Oppenheimer - Like I said, I didn't love this movie on the first watch and I'm so glad I didn't play into the Barbenheimer craze over the summer, because I would have loathed it then. In between the first and second watch I read American Prometheus and I think having that perspective of Oppenheimer himself gave me a new appreciation for the complexities that Cillian Murphy was able to portray.
Killers of the Flower Moon - I read this book when it came out and I think Scorsese executed it perfectly. Unfortunately, I saw it in a small theater where Taylor Swift was playing next door and listened to teenyboppers screaming every song through the walls. Not really the vibe you want with this story.
Anatomy of a Fall - The story is the thing in this movie and I love it for it. It is simple, yet does a masterful job with the complexities of relationships. I also loved learning about the intricacies of the French court system. Sandra Hüller deserves the recognition she's getting, but I was extremely disappointed Milo Machado-Graner was not nominated as well.
American Fiction - This movie was funny and I appreciated the meta-ness of the identity crisis the main character goes through. I'm not sure that it was Oscar worthy, but it was enjoyable.
The Holdovers - On the surface this looks like my kind of movie, but The Dead Poets Society it was not and the story line seemed to drag on at times. Paul Giamatti is one of my all time favorite actors (I've watched John Adams a solid 10 times) and Da'vine Joy Randolph deserves everything that comes her way, but it just didn't hit for me.
Maestro - Bradley Cooper tried so hard with this movie and he did portray Leonard Bernstein - who I knew nothing about apart from LEONARD BERNSTEIN - exceptionally well. I enjoyed a quick and witty banter, but something about this movie was off.
Past Lives - This movie was nice and I enjoyed it, but I'll never watch it again.
Barbie - Hands down my least favorite move of the year. I believe I lost brain cells with this one. It was fine, but I still don't get what the hype was about and Ryan Gosling should never have been nominated for best actor for this role. Shame on the Academy.

MaTM: Very spicy list here Dana. You’re right about The Zone of Interest and feeling changed after watching. Phenomenal film overall that pushes some stylistic boundaries that still holds up after a second viewing. I think Poor Things (now on Hulu) will grow on me more, but you can deny Emma Stone and what she was able to pull off in that role. Seems like we are pretty on par with selections, though I felt that Past Lives was incredibly touching and even heartbreaking.

Matt at the Movies: Best Picture Power Rankings

Acting their Oscars Off

MatM: I had some reservations with the acting categories. Some misplaced female leads who seemed to be more a supporting role along with some noticeable absences like Margot Robbie. On the male side it really is a two horse race between Cillian Murphy and Paul Giamatti.

What acting performances this year really stayed with you after viewing this year that you would like to see take home a statue?

DG: I didn't love Barbie (please don't come at me my fellow feminists! I still wave the flag!) so I wasn't surprised to see Margot Robbie left out. The one I am shocked didn't receive a nomination was Fantasia Barrino in The Color Purple. I literally did not know it was her until part way through the film. She was incredible.

I also think Joaquin Phoenix acted his ass off in Napoleon even though the movie itself was a dozer. I feel the exact same way about Colman Domingo in Rustin also, both were exceptional performances. I wish Paul Giamatti wasn't going against Cillian Murphy because I feel like his acting craft was stronger than Cillian Murphy's (I kept seeing glimpses of Thomas Shelby in Peaky Blinders within Robert Oppenheimer). All that said, I think Murphy has this category in the bag. Can we please talk about Emma Stone's performance in Poor Things? Now that is some acting!

MatM: Hand to my heart, I dislike musicals in general so I cannot comment on The Color Purple but Rustin was a tough watch. In terms of best actor Giamatti formed a wonderful trio working beautifully with each other in The Holdovers, but Cillian Murphy put this movie on his back for three hours albeit with an all-time supporting cast. I think Murphy should well deservedly take this one home.

Dana, I'm more concerned that Emma Stone will be given the same treatment as my girl Cate Blanchett had last year with her tremendous work as Lydia Tár. Stone was above and beyond the greatest performance of acting from any category but she just won in the past decade for La La Land. The academy loves to spread the wealth nowadays and I wonder if that will also feature a Lily Gladstone, for what I feel is a supporting acting performance, with Killers of the Flower Moon?

Adaptation Conversation

MatM: Our next question is probably the toughest category to predict. Who are you picking for best original and adapted screenplays? Each category is absolutely loaded with creative, complex, and entertaining storytelling. Vegas currently has Oppenheimer in the lead in adapted with The Holdovers holding the edge in original.

DG: I honestly have no freaking clue who will win for adapted screenplay because I could make a solid case for Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and The Zone of Interest. I'm going to go with The Zone of Interest on this one simply because I want this movie to win every award it is nominated for. In terms of original screenplay … The Holdovers? Really? Vegas has lost its mind. Anatomy of a Fall should win this hands down.

MatM: The Zone of Interest adaption was quite an overhaul by director Jonathan Glazer who took a much more heady text to present to us this magnificently chilling tale. I’m going with Oppenheimer for adapting American Prometheus: The Triumph and Tragedy of J. Robert Oppenheimer. This is a 700 page tome which was incredibly fascinating to me. It creates these three separate storylines where the parts equal up to the sum. Who knew losing a hearing and testimony for security clearances could be so enthralling?

In the original screenplay I couldn't agree more, Anatomy of a Fall is two steps ahead of the other nominees.

A Banner Year for Foreign Film

MatM: Dana, this was an exceptional year for international film. We have multiple nominees gathering spots with the mainstream voters from El Conde in cinematography to Anatomy of a Fall in editing and screenplay. These films have trickled into the mainstream consciousness and with more viewing options than ever before we are really seeing these films being recognized at a broader level.

I was absolutely heartbroken that France’s entry The Taste of Things did not get a nomination as it was my clear number two behind England’s The Zone of Interest. (Editor’s Note: Check out Matt’s international features week piece for some extra analysis on many of these films).

If I had to rank the five nominees in a year where all were excellent it would break down accordingly:

Matt at the Movies: International Feature Rankings

MatM: Any thoughts now that you’ve been able to catch up on many of the foreign films that moved the needle for you?

Do you think any international films can take home any of the larger awards a-la Parasite in 2019 this year?

DG: As you know, Matty, I live in Mooresville which is an independent/foreign film desert and I'm so grateful for the oasis that is Independent Picture House for bringing these types of movies to us. I know many people will not watch a foreign film because they don't want to "read" a movie, but I am one of those weirdos who pretty much watches everything with subtitles anyway.

I encourage everyone to go see at least one foreign film from the nominees because they truly are some of the best movies of this year.

In terms of rankings, The Zone of Interest is the clear front runner. I am optimistic it can take home an award in a broader category with its best chance, I believe, in the sound category. After that, our rankings veer from each other. I loved Society of the Snow and felt every second of that film - most of it nausea, but still. Io Capitano was visually stunning and heartbreaking while Perfect Days was thought provoking. I'm with you on The Teachers' Lounge. I think it hits too close to home for me to enjoy it and I found myself in teacher critic mode for most of the film.

Documentary Films to Watch

MatM: I will occasionally catch a couple of the documentary features nominated each year but my heart is usually never into it. You, milady, are a connoisseur of this type of documentary from observational to expository to poetic and beyond. It’s time to let you cook for a bit.

Can you give us a breakdown of this year's nominees and where they stand in terms of their message along with the filmmakers ability to convey it to the viewers?

DG: Documentaries are my jam and - long form or short form - I love them all! This is probably the hardest category for us Oscar completionists to finish (side note, there is a fun website - oscaround.com - that will help you keep track of your viewings if you are so inclined).

I will never understand why films that are nominated don't try to at least do a limited release so more people can see them. Currently the documentary To Kill a Tiger is keeping me from seeing all nominated films and I am not happy about it. RELEASE THE FILMS!

This year I am once again torn between what I think will win and what I want to win. In the feature category, 20 Days in Mariupol tells the story of a group of reporters stuck in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol as the Russian army advances. It is insanely intense and because of its stronger connection to the United States, will be more resonant with American viewers and will win Best Documentary.

My personal favorite this year was Bobi Wine. The reason I love documentaries so much is I love hearing stories that I otherwise would not come across, and Bobi Wine was it for me this year. This lovable Ugandan singer is fighting the good fight against an oppressive Ugandan regime, and this documentary does an excellent job of portraying the complexities of fighting what is essentially a dictatorship.

The other two films I was able to see this year were Eternal Memory, a Chilean film that tells the story of a wife caring for her husband with Alzheimers, and Four Daughters, a Tunisian film that tells the story of a mother and her four daughters, two of whom have been radicalized by Islamic forces in Libya and have disappeared from the family home. Four Daughters has had a strong run and could make a showing, but I think 20 Days in Mariupol has too strong of a lead.

MatM: Thank you for your thoughts on a very open category where even Oscar pundits are never quite sure why the documentary guild chooses what they do.

Sound and Fury and Cinematography

MatM: My next question is what “below the line” technical category do you think will reign supreme? I feel Barbie has a real chance to grab some awards along with Maestro and even The Creator for its stunning visual effects. I will be heartbroken if The Zone of Interest does not take home best sound as it was such a completely integral accompaniment to the film that brought it all together.

DG: Before I do my technical picks, I wanted to give a shout out to the live action short The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar. Wes Anderson is my all time favorite director and Asteroid City was my favorite film from this year, so I'm glad to see him get a nod for this wonderful little film.

Cinematography and Production Design are two categories where we could see some surprises. I went with the safe choices of Oppenheimer for Cinematography and Poor Things for production design, but my feelings won't be hurt if any other of the nominees win. I've never said these words in my whole life, but I'm really excited for Makeup and Hairstyling. The artists did a fantastic job with Bradley Cooper in Maestro and it is currently the front runner, but I felt like Society of the Snow was the most realistic. I had not even heard of Golda before its nomination in this category, but I'm so glad I got a chance to watch it. Helen Miren looked exactly like Golda Meir, so I'd love to see it get some recognition.

Final Thought on Film’s Big Night

MatM: Finally we are at the finish line. I am hoping for an Oppenheimer parade with some sprinkling of Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest mixed in when possible. Will be crossing my fingers for Emma Stone and Cillian Murphy as well to triumph over their counterparts. My final question as I gaze at your amazing height and knowledge at the red carpet Sunday night is… what are you looking forward to most seeing from the 2024 Oscar ceremony?

DG: Besides beating you again this year, I think I'm most excited to see if any of the many incredible foreign films can take away some wins. I'd love to see The Zone of Interest take the top spot with Best Picture and I would be ecstatic if Sandra Hüller could pull off an upset in Best Actress. I don't usually get excited about the original song performances, but I'm still royally pissed that American Symphony wasn't nominated for Best Documentary and I can't wait to see Jon Batiste perform "It Never Went Away.”

Other than that, I love a good surprise and I'm hoping for at least a couple left-field upsets. Bring on the red carpet, my friend! Here's hoping for a wild ride!

MatM: “I have become death, destroyer of worlds,” is how this Oppenheimer quote applies to my Oscar selection strategy towards you Dana. One thing I can say for us both is that we are great hands with Jimmy Kimmel hosting on Sunday. He is charming, a smart ass, and will have some fun while still taking the occasion seriously which is all you can ask for an awards host. While not the biggest fan of having all original songs sung out during the broadcast, rumors are swirling that Ryan Gosling will be doing his rendition of “I’m Just Ken,” which I’m over the moon for.

Get your popcorn buckets, check your Oscar bingo sheets, and may the winning picks be ever in your favor. I can't thank the readers enough for going with us on this ride today. Check below for our official selections and don’t forget to tune into ABC this Sunday at 7PM for the 96th annual Academy Awards. Our time is done for the exchange Dana but I’ll leave you with this loving quote from Arthur to his partner Nora in Past Lives, “You make my life so much bigger, and I'm wondering if I do the same thing for you.”

See you on the red carpet at the Independent Picture House Sunday!

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