Matt at the Movies: The Oscars Exchange

Matt and guest contributor Dana Gillis are back again with their yearly Academy Awards picks. Who will prevail as the Oscars ceremony approaches on Sunday night?

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Feb 26, 2025

Matt and Dana have been putting in the work these past two months to see a massive amount of films, gather online betting odds, listen to industry chatter, absorb movie podcasts, and read the tea leaves to make their final selections.

Matt at the Movies: Lots of chalk this year with selections, some small surprises, and smear campaigns the likes we haven’t seen since the days of Miramax and Harvey Weinstein.

You’ve already read my fellow cinephile’s recent thoughts on Oscar nominations. “Movie Muse” Dana Gillis is back, and we’re continuing our tradition of email exchanges to make sense of what to expect on the big night. I can’t wait to don my gold jacket and stand awkwardly for pictures juxtaposed with my much taller friend at the Oscar Viewing Party & Fundraiser at the Independent Picture House this Sunday at 7 PM!

We'll be posting live reactions throughout the ceremony, so check out my Instagram to follow along, and don’t forget to follow the Y’all Weekly Insta for additional coverage.

We encourage you to use this link to follow along to the categories in our discussion and check the end of the article to see our selections for each category.

Now, for the the progressive Cardinal Bellini to my steadfast Cardinal Lawrence. She’s the manipulating Roy Cohn to my burgeoning Donald Trump. The helpful capybara to my wily adventurous cat spirit.

Dana, let's kick things off with our annual 2025 Oscar Exchange.

The following email exchanges took place from February 21st through the 24th. They are presented (mostly) unedited.

MaTM: Dana we have had issues with so many nominees this awards season. Lack of intimacy coordinators for Anora As well as usage of AI for some renderings and Hungarian speech fluency on The Brutalist. The biggest elephant in the room however came from an unearthed series of wild racist posts from Best Actress nominee Karla Sofía Gascón of Emilia Pérez which have essentially tanked any of the film's goodwill from an already divisive story. It is giving real Two Billboards Outside Ebbings, Montana energy from a few years ago where the pushback of a foreign director speaking for a culture or community they are not a part of comes off as tone deaf. For this film, both the Mexican and transgender communities have spoken out about director Jacques Audiard’s depiction of their lives on film.

Sorry for the long set up Dana, but we know that the entertainment industry is a bubble. Emilia Pérez won at Cannes, they just earned the BAFTA for best foreign film, and has an incredible THIRTEEN Oscar nominations this year. Many academy members are still in love with this film even after all the fallout with Gascón who Audiard and Netflix have basically disavowed at this point. Is Hollywood going to “Hollywood” and have this controversial film garner some of their top prizes?

Dana Gilles, the Movie Muse: I feel like Hollywood is going to have to do a better job of reading the room and appealing to the masses. I know that the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences looks beyond popular consumption to the art of film, but Hollywood is going to have to garner more commercial appeal to reach pre-pandemic numbers. According to Box Office Mojo the highest grossing movie year at $11,892,160,011 was 2018. The year 2024 ranked 20th in overall gross box office with Inside Out 2 as its highest grossing film. That’s just sad.

I know what you’re going to say, “It’s about the ART”. But making art takes money and Hollywood is losing it. The Emilia Pérez’s and Anoras and Brutalists are not doing it for us. This is one of the first years in a long time that I have been blah about the top 10 and I feel like the majority of moviegoers agree with me. If we want quality films, Hollywood is going to have to sell more movies to average Joe from Indiana and quit trying to go so far out of the box. Where are the Forrest Gumps and Schindler’s Lists and The King’s Speeches of years gone by?

MaTM: I think you’re a little off in the fact that Hollywood showcased just last year with “Barbenheimer” that it can capture the zeitgeist of America. The problem with the three films you mentioned is that they are original stories and adaptations. No previous IP reboots or sequels which absolutely dominate today's box office sales. This further pushes studio executives to green light even more bland spinoffs… and I’m crying.

Looking at our ranking of the ten nominees below, I can’t be mad at all. Some epic original stories, excellent book adaptations, a bevy of musical high notes, amazing visual craftsmanship, and most importantly artistic vision that push the envelope of what a film can be. We know that ranked choice voting for best picture really turns the tables and looking at our two lists I can see why. What film do you think can take advantage of ranked choice voting and why?

Matt at the Movies: Best Picture Power Rankings

DG: I put Anora at the top for that very reason. Do I think it was the best film of the year? No. That honor would go to Conclave for me. But, I feel like Anora has gotten enough boost over the past few weeks from the controversy surrounding Emilia Pérez and the strength of Mikey Madison’s performance to push it to the top of many voter’s lists. The Brutalist was visually superb, but someone off putting for being too long and may suffer the consequences of the ranked choice for that reason. This year is tough and I would not be shocked if we see a surprise win at the end.

MaTM: Yea this gets really tricky because there are so many genres represented but some don’t seem to jive well. If someone is all in for The Brutalist do they phase out any of the musicals because it seems like a different sport being played? Are team Pérez down with The Substance? Safe picks do seem like Conclave or Anora in this system.

Let’s talk about something you and I always scratch our heads about… screenplays! For adapted I’m feeling the exposition heavy Conclave but the real pick would be Nickel Boys, (RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes) the Colson Whitehead adaption. I’m sorry Dana but the best original screenplay is an absolute bloodbath. I would love Jesse Eisenberg to take this home for A Real Pain but Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold for The Brutalist will suffice. What say you about the screenplay categories, my literary queen?

DG: I would be happy with Conclave or Nickel Boys taking home best adapted, but I’m going to have to stick with my favorite and say Conclave. It is coming off a Golden Globe and BAFTA win for writer Peter Straughan and I feel like the momentum is just too strong. Robert Harris, author of the original book, is one of my favorite writers and the screenplay does the book justice.

I agree with you about Original Screenplay being a bloodbath and I honestly have no idea which way this category will fall. The Substance was gory, but genius, Anora is a solid story told, and The Brutalist would be an obvious favorite. My only disappointment in this category was September 5. I was finally able to see it in late January after it was oddly pulled from Regal Cinemas and I was bored halfway through the film. The casting was excellent, but the story fell flat. For Best Original Screenplay I’m going to go out on a limb and put my vote in for Jesse Eisenberg with A Real Pain.

MaTM: Let’s talk some chalk (easy bet) categories. Do you see any drama unfolding in either of the men’s acting or best supporting actress categories? We have Adrien Brody who absolutely carried The Brutalist, Kieran Culkin that brought the whimsical smarm of A Real Pain to life, and Zoe Saldaña who was the real shining star of Emilia Pérez are clearly out in front. Golden Globes and BAFTA wins have only bolstered their resumes though Chalamet just won SAG for his role as Bob Dylan on Sunday to make it spicy. Can you see anyone with even a slim chance in any of these three major acting categories pulling off an upset?

DG: I don’t think we’ve ever gone into the Oscars final stretch with these categories almost completely in the bag, have we? I said it in our last exchange and I’ll say it again, I have a massive crush on Adrien Brody and would vote for him no matter what he is in. If he weren’t in the running, I’d seriously have a hard time choosing a best actor. Ralph Fiennes was exceptional in Conclave, Coleman Domingo continues to wow me, Sebastian Stan was a rock star in The Apprentice, and Timothee Chalomet did Bob Dylan justice in A Complete Unknown. Take Adrien Brody out of the running and you have a four way tie.

Kieran Culkin has the Supporting Actor category wrapped up with wins in almost every award show he’s been in thus far and I don’t think the Oscars will be any different. If I had to choose my favorite performance this year, though, I’d vote for Jeremy Strong for his portrait of sleazy Donald Trump sidekick Roy Cohn. The movie itself wasn’t stellar, but the acting by Sebatian Stan and Jeremy Strong both stood out in a year of strong acting performances.

The Supporting Actress category is where I have the biggest issue. I’m still going to choose Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez because she’s dominated this category so far, but I feel like this is one of those nominations where there could be serious debate on whether the actress was placed in the wrong category. While I understand that the lead actress nomination typically goes to the actress whose character is central to the plot, Saldaña carries this movie. She’s miscategorized and it makes voting for her over the other actresses a hard pill to swallow. My personal favorite performance and the best supporting actress this year was Monica Barbaro who will be robbed of an award by Zoe Saldaña .

MaTM: I got all day if you want to talk category fraud as Kieran Culkin fits the bill as well. Let’s round out a couple categories before heading into the most contentious portion. Also Chalamet just won best actor at the SAG Awards Sunday so it seems the race for best actor may be more wide open than we previously thought. Animated feature is a two way battle between The Wild Robot and Flow. Loved them both but Flow was something I’d really seen before and kind of breathtakingly beautiful so I’m going with that. I like The Brutalist score with its epic tone to fit the film and feel “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez was the highlight scene of the movie and should win best song.

More tricky to me is the best director category. It felt like James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) was properly steering a ship to its right course. We have two French filmmakers in Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) and Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) with completely outside the box sensibilities which produced fun, but to me, ultimately non substantial films. Not to come off as jingoistic here Dana, but if Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) loses to one of these two I’m going to lose my goddamn mind! No shade on Sean Baker (Anora) here at all. I can totally accept a win by him here but the way Corbet set up scenes, created beautiful set pieces, and just made each scene feel BIGGER left me in awe this year. My name is Matt, and I’m a “brutal boy”. Dana, my quixotic Kentucky wallflower, hit me with a quick rundown on the best animated feature, score, song, and director categories.

DG: HA! I’ve never been called a wallflower, but quixotic is probably apt. The animated films this year were wonderful, weren’t they? I’ll agree that Flow will probably take the honors, but my personal favorite was the highest grossing movie this year - Inside Out 2. My choices on song and score bomb every year, so I’m going to go with my personal favorites in these categories which are Wicked for score and “El Mal" for song while hoping for the best. This director race has been insane this year. If you had asked me a few weeks ago, I would have said Brady Corbet had it in the bag for The Brutalist. However, Sean Baker has been coming on strong with wins at the Directors Guild and Producers Guild awards. Brady Corbet did take home a BAFTA, so I’m going to stick with my gut and go with Corbet for the win.

MaTM: Ok Dana you know my blind is documentaries. Give me the rundown on the candidates and what you think.

DG: Now you’re speaking my language. Documentaries - long and short form - are my specialty and I wait all year long to see which ones will rise to the top.

Movie Muse Rankings: Best Documentary - Short

I love nothing more than pausing something I’m reading or watching and Googling to learn more. Documentary shorts are perfect for this since most can be found on home streaming services. Plus, they are just long enough to engage me and short enough that my ADD restlessness stays at bay. This year’s selections had so much to teach me.

I do not come from or live in an area where gun violence is prevalent, so to see the shooting of a black man by Chicago police in Incident in real time was heavy. However, the genius of this film and why it is my top pick is that the director was able to tell a complete story using real footage from a variety of sources. The film is created entirely from released security footage and body cameras worn by the officers involved. The film portrays the shooting of Harith Augustus by police officer Dillon Hailey in Chicago on July 14, 2018 and the director, Bill Morrison, said “My hope is that viewers will take away a more informed view of how police surveillance footage can be used, withheld, and mischaracterized to exonerate officers. Police oversight begins with public awareness.”

I am Ready, Warden documents the last week of John Henry Ramirez, a former Marine who was sentenced to death for the brutal killing of Pablo Castro. Ramirez was executed on October 5th, 2022. It’s an important commentary on forgiveness and regret that I would recommend anyone seeing.

As a teacher, Death by Numbers hits very close to home. The film tells the story of Samantha Fuentes, a student at Parkland High School who was shot in the thigh during the mass shooting event there. The short follows Fuentes as she prepares to confront the shooter in court.

After seeing three intense films, it was a relief to have two lighthearted selections among the nominees and I enjoyed them both. The Only Girl in the Orchestra documents the life of Orin O’Brien, the first woman chosen by the amazing Leonard Bernstein to join the New York Philharmonic. Instruments of a Beating Heart follows a first grade student in Japan as she gets a part in her school’s orchestra. Both are feel good films that I highly recommend on a day when you are feeling low. Now onto the features.

Movie Muse Rankings: Best Documentary - Feature

The frontrunner this year and my pick for Best Documentary is No Other Land. Two young journalists, one Palestinian and one Israeli, form a friendship and tell the story of Palestinian families, including the young Palestinian’s, displaced by the Israeli government in the West Bank. The story and footage are raw and give us an insider glimpse into a situation that dominates our headlines. The film has had very limited US distribution, but I highly recommend seeing it if you get a chance.

My favorite documentary this year, but not one that I don’t think can win, is Sugarcane. In addition to being a book and movie nerd, I also love history and how it connects to the world today. Sugarcane tells the story of the history of abuse in the Canadian Indian residential school system. This is a story that most people don’t know and a powerful reminder that the actions of yesterday have serious consequences today. It can be found on National Geographic through Disney+ and while it is hard to watch, it is an important story that needs to be told.

I loved the creativity of Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat and learned a lot about the importance of the emerging African independent nations during the Cold War, but I feel like the concept might be too out there for Academy voters. The story builds through lively jazz music and live performances to the storming of the UN by jazz musicians Abbey Lincoln and Max Roach in protest of the murder of Congolese leader Patrice Lumumba. It is worth seeing if only for the inclusion of music into a story that could otherwise have been drab.

Porcelain War has received high accolades all season and could upset No Other Land for the win, but the last two documentary winners have been about the war in Ukraine and I think the voters could go another direction this year. The film documents three Ukrainian artists who continue to create porcelain figurines in the midst of turmoil. It is a powerful message of resilience and has a 95% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

The last film on my list is Black Box Diaries. It has made a surge in the past couple of weeks, but it just did not engage me as much as the other nominees this year. What makes it intriguing is the first person documentation by a sexual assault vicitim of the investigative process and the backlash she receives for going public against a high level Japanese official. The director Shiori Ito has received some accusations from her own lawyers of improper use of materials meant to be used in court proceedings that have found their way into the film and the potential for them to taint her case. Because of the power of a victim telling their own story and standing up to the establishment, this documentary could be a sleeper and come out victorious with the Academy voters.

MaTM: Doing the lord’s work on documentaries I thank you as always. I am too fragile for the truth they bring and I appreciate your work. It’s now time for me to wax poetically about Best International Feature. Below are my rankings, thoughts, and in the end I would choose Flow as my personal pick but have zero issue with any of the top three getting the award as each was excellent. Let’s take a look at the international features!

Matt at the Movies: International Feature Rankings

MatM: I had not seen three of the films when the nominees came out and was worried we were going to be light compared to last year's excellent slate (The Zone of Interest, Perfect Days, Io Capitano). Was extremely pleased with what the academy decided to move forward with, though it would have been nice to see All We Imagine as Light get the nod. The real theme this year seems to be power. Who holds it, wields it, and how society must cope after the dust settles.

Flow, Latvia’s selection, is my favorite international selection because it really had some completely new and refreshing things in terms of animation. The way the animals moved, sounded, and felt like the real thing was beautiful. The story was simple but completely engaging. To see a cat, dog, capybara, lemur, and secretary bird form a weird animal kinship to survive a great biblical style flood kept me locked in for all the eighty-five minutes runtime. I know it’s a dark horse against The Wild Robot for best animated feature but this film is very deserving of both of its award nominations.

The Girl with the Needle was the Danish selection this year and a real good peek into the turn of the century industrial society following the conclusion of WWI. The set design and cinematography was beautiful as it captured the overcast factory feel from the apartments to cobblestone streets. Our main character Karoline finds herself without a job, family, and pregnant with nowhere to turn. She finds a seemingly caring woman Dagmar and her young daughter Erena who run an off the books adoption agency for women in her position. Karoline comes to live with the family, care for newborns, and find ways to cope with the constant feeling of loss. Things are not what they appear and the final act of the film says as much about the time period as it does its characters.

I’m Still Here was representing Brazil and had gained a lot of momentum at the Golden Globes capturing best actress in a drama for Fernanda Torres as the matriarch of the Paiva family. You felt the closeness, love, and community of their neighborhood and friends as they lived through the military dictatorship tightening its grip in 1971 Rio de Janeiro. Successful and loving father Rubens was a former congressman and outspoken voice against the new regime until one day a group of men came knocking at the front door. Based on a true story we see the fallout of speaking up for what you believe in and the lives of over 20,000 Brazilians who were directly affected. Torres delivers a powerful and restrained performance that sees her going head on with both Demi Moore (The Substance) and Mikey Madison (Anora) for best actress. The story was chilling and a sign of the times for the world today in the tides of right wing uprisings.

We have already talked about the blowback of Emilia Pérez, so I’ll just reference my thoughts on the film from my year end list which hit #6 before the chaos:

Did it have the best musical numbers of the year? No, I'd give that to A Complete Unknown (sorry Wicked fans). Was it the most fun musical? Again no, I’d hand that to Kneecap. Was it the most successful? Definitely not, as Moana 2 has reached one billion worldwide. So what about this opera libretto created by French filmmaker Jacques Audiard made it sixth on my end of the year list? It was a breath of fresh air!

Zoe Saldaña is the glue that holds the film together as a bright lawyer who takes a big risk to work with a drug lord on a very unique task. Karla Sofía Gascón is ruthless and striking as the kingpin turned businesswoman that earned her Best Actress at this year's Cannes Film Festival (she is also the first transgender actor to achieve the feat). The musical pieces are shot incredibly well, with wonderful set design and choreography. Emilia was touted by critics as a new type of musical that didn’t adhere to traditional story framing, and they were correct. I hope for more efforts in this vein with original stories instead of fanfic IP (sorry again Wicked fans).

Finally, The Seed of the Sacred Fig was the Iranian selection that focuses on a family living in Tehran during a period of political uprisings with the governments. It felt a little too long and on the nose with its message but it’s worth being noted that director Mohammad Rasoulof shot the entire movie in secret with financing from Germany and France. He uses real footage of uprisings to show the world the current situation of life in Iran which was extremely powerful in the message. Daughters Sana and Rezvan represent a new generation of Iranians youth that are tired of the harsh measures imposed on their everyday lives. The issue is that their father Iman works for the regime as an investigator and interrogator who has become the root of the problem their daughters are tired of. When Iman’s government issued gun goes missing he turns to his dutiful wife Najmeh and his daughters as the culprits of betrayal. Iman is willing to tear his family apart to get to the bottom of the issue and we see ideas of loyalty, love, duty, and morals play out within the family dynamic.

MaTM: We are coming down to the end and we saved some of the spicier categories for the finale. Best actress has seemingly become a two horse race with Demi Moore just capturing the SAG Award on Sunday night for The Substance to go along with her Golden Globe win. Mikey Madison has won the BAFTA and Independent Spirit Award for her work in Anora. No offense to Demi Moore whose performance was very brave (corny trope I know) but also her co-star Margaret Qualley helped carry the film. Mikey Madison, like Adrien Brody, carried Anora on her back and I feel deserves the win. Finally the dark horse is Fernanda Torres who also won a Golden Globe and was excellent in her powerful yet constrained role in I’m Still Here. Who are you taking for best actress Dana?

DG: One of my frustrations this year has been the limited release of some of the nominated films. I am an Oscar Purist who feels like it is a requirement to see every nomination in order to have a valid opinion. Sadly, I’m Still Here is the film that is keeping me from fulfilling my duties. I’ve still got a week to fit it in and may change my opinion after seeing Fernanda Torres’s performance which I hear is superb; however, this Gen-Xer can not vote for anyone other than Demi Moore. This woman helped shape my cinematic life during my teenage years with Indecent Proposal, Ghost, and A Few Good Men. The fact that she has put herself in a role that most 62 year olds would never dream of doing and looked damn good doing it deserves some love. A win for Mikey Madison would be fine, but a win for Demi Moore would be epic.

MaTM: The top prize for Best Picture is as wide open as I’ve ever seen. Seemingly up to four films have a realistic shot including The Brutalist, Conclave, Anora, and a very outside shot amid speculation for Emilia Pérez. You know me, I'm a “brutal boy” and I think that film was fantastic. However with ranked choice voting I think Conclave is going to take it home. Who do you have winning best picture?

DG: Most years I have a good idea of who I think will take the Best Picture even if it isn’t my personal favorite. This year I think you could hang them all up on the wall and throw a dart at them and have as good a chance as any at picking the winner. I see it going one of three ways - The Brutalist, Anora, or Conclave - and I won’t be sad with any of them. Conclave was my favorite film and its win at the SAGs surprised and excited me, but I’m going to stick with my gut and say Anora.

MaTM: Well there you have it for our official Oscar breakdown of the 97th annual Academy Awards. The Academy of Motion Picture and Sciences will have Conan O’Brien hosting on ABC which you can stream through various platforms kicking off at 7 PM this Sunday. Dana and I will be live vlogging at the Independent Picture House so pop over to Y’all Weekly on Instagram to check our reactions. Our official selections for the big night are below and once again I hope to crush Dana’s spirit and mental well-being. Thank you again Dana “The Movie Muse” Gillis and enjoy Oscar night 2025!